Monthly Archives: November 2016

A Place on the Raft

Last May, the Federal Reserve Board published a comprehensive Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2015.  The report, based on extensive survey data, portrays many who financially are doing okay or better, and many who are not.

A highlighted statistic that startles:  46% of adults could not cover a $400 emergency expense without selling something or borrowing some money.  (Hat tip to New York Times reporter Gretchen Morgenson for remembering and writing yesterday how startling these data still are.)

The Fed report sits alongside U.S. Census Bureau data showing that household incomes grew significantly in 2015.

These data are not inconsistent—“doing better” can be a recent, good turn in a life of “still struggling.”

I am pretty sure that many people in the U.S. voted last week for a candidate who as president would, they hoped, improve their circumstances.  And I suspect that those voters—some for Clinton, some for Trump, and some for fringe candidates—add up to a very large number.

I hope that their votes all get counted, and that they win.  In a decent society, the project of all, including government, should be to insure that every person has basic security—a place on the raft.

private-swim-raft-for-your-enjoyment

Will We Count All the Votes?

Yesterday morning, I asked, “Is Hillary Clinton is the U.S. President-Elect?”

My question was based on three things:

  • As we have known since last Tuesday night, the outcomes of the especially close popular votes in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will, when translated into electoral votes, determine who is elected president when the electors vote next month.
  • I (still) can’t find any government announcements or news reports that all of the votes in each of those States have been counted, or that they will be counted.
  • I think that the public should be discussing the value of recounting votes in those States, to be sure that their electoral votes are awarded to the correct candidate, the one whom the voters actually chose.

On this Sunday morning, Clinton is leading in the national reported popular vote by about 570,000 votes, which is up from about 400,000 that had been counted and reported as of yesterday.  That still is irrelevant, because electoral votes make a president.

But the popular vote in each State is very relevant, because each State awards its electoral votes to the winner of its popular vote.

Right now, based on reported popular votes in each State, Trump has 290 electoral votes and Clinton has 228.

That means that if final popular vote totals were to favor Clinton in only two States, Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Trump would drop below 270.

That also means that if Clinton were determined to have won the popular votes in two more States, Michigan (16 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), she would have 278 electoral votes, and the presidency.

Here is the latest on the votes in these four key States—

  • Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) has been declared, based on state officials having reported 99% of the vote, for Trump—he leads by about 68,000 votes, out of about 5.7 million.
  • Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) has been declared, based state officials having reported 100% of the vote, for Trump—he leads by about 27,000 votes, out of about 2.8 million.
  • Michigan (16 electoral votes) has not yet been declared, despite state officials having reported 100% of the vote. Trump leads there by about 12,000 votes, out of about 4.5 million.
  • New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) has not yet been declared, despite state officials having reported 100% of the vote. Clinton leads there by about 2,500 votes, out of about 700,000.

So I’m still asking:

Have all the votes in each State been counted?

And are these races so close that the votes in each should be recounted, while we have time to get this right?

Is Hillary Clinton the U.S. President-Elect?

On this Saturday morning, three days since Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election:

  • Clinton has a counted vote lead in the nationwide popular vote of about 400,000. That does not matter because, of course, we choose presidents by electors.
  • Each State determines its electors, however, based on the popular vote in the State.
  • Based on current popular vote totals translated into electors, Donald Trump has 290 electoral votes—20 more than the total needed to become president—and Clinton has 228.
  • Two States, Michigan (16 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), have not been decided—those vote counts are ongoing.

So how close to completed, or not, are the popular vote counts in States, and especially in the States that are apparently very close and definitely are/will be decisive?

For example, in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), awarded to Trump by the media and color-coded maps we’ve all seen, Trump leads by about 69,000 votes out of about 5.8 million cast.  Have all Pennsylvania votes in fact been counted?  If not, will they be?  If so (and if when), is the margin so close that we—Clinton, yes, and also Trump, and also all of the people in the United States—have an interest to recount, to be sure we know who the voters chose?

And also Wisconsin.  Its 10 electoral votes also have been awarded to Trump.  The reported vote margin in Wisconsin is about 27,000 votes, out of more than 2.8 million votes counted.  Have all the Wisconsin votes been counted?  And is the race so close that they should be recounted?

If a majority of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton, she is President-elect, even if New Hampshire voters chose Trump.  Or she should be.

Shouldn’t we figure that out?

Why aren’t people asking these questions?

Election Eves:  A Memory and a Prediction

I remember walking, 36 years ago, through the main gates onto Georgetown University’s campus.  I was a student then, probably carrying too many books.  The day was beautiful—sunny and crisp.  The next day was Election Day.  I could feel, and the press made clear, that voters were deciding late, many out of stoked fears and both grounded concerns (e.g., about economic conditions) and unfounded perceptions (e.g., that the government was doing nothing to free U.S. citizens held hostage in Iran), moving toward what became Ronald Reagan’s victory over President Carter.

This morning I walked through the main gates onto St. John’s University’s campus.  I work there, and I definitely was carrying too many books.  This day is beautiful—sunny and crisp.  Tomorrow is Election Day.  I believe I can feel, and the “press” (now paper plus everything else) is making it clear that a distinct majority of voters is rejecting attempts to stoke fears and voting instead on grounded information and accurate perceptions.

With respect, “Morning in America” was a 1980s slogan that did not describe what happened too much to too many Americans in that decade.

Today is a brighter morning in America, as the past eight years generally have been.  And I look forward to tomorrow’s morning, and even more to Wednesday’s.